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Wednesday May 14th,
2008
Greetings and welcome!
My apologies for being
late today. Life is pretty hectic at the moment. I am officially
buried in work. Prosperity is a good thing, it just has me running
a little behind.
We had a very nice day
yesterday when the sun came out for a while and the temps went
just above 60. The radar said that it rained at one point, but
it was just big dark cloud here on the ground.
We did a sunset campfire
yesterday that was most enjoyable. Later at night the critters
were moving around pretty good, and at one point the coyotes
were within about 100 yards. I went inside to get the video camera
to try and catch their yelps, but the commotion of me moving
around had quieted things down by the time that I returned.
We are are expecting a
little rain tonight, but not much more. A weak cold front passed
our way and brought showers and storms. We had a few rumbles
earlier, and then between 7 and 9 tonight there was some heavier
rain and some lightning and thunder. I will estimate the rain
so far at about a half inch, maybe a little more.
Spring continues it's slow
progression. Some of the aspen family are starting to get first
leaves, but most hardwoods remain bare. I think that we are officially
late with the green explosion this year. I did see my first trillium
over the weekend, along with some tiny cloverleaf shaped blue
and white flowers.
The bugs have not been
too bad. The wood ticks are out and in business, but the mosquito
remains rare. Today the gnats were getting pesky. So far (thankfully)
that has been about it for bugs to date.
Here are a few snapshots
from around the yard..
These sprouts will be trilliums
and wild strawberries in about a week or two
The first cherry blooms
It is hard to believe that
this landscape will be waist high in ferns and foliage in a month
This snapshot shows that
a lot of the shrubs and ground foliage has yet to come in
This Momma robin made a
nest about 30' from the front door
We have had a great spring
for whitewater rafting. The Peshtigo River peaked at +33 a few
weeks ago and has been slow to fall back to normal levels. It
is getting closer, and is currently running at a +5.
This weekend the price
of rafting falls dramatically. In spring when extra guides and
gear are needed due to high water and cold weather, rafting is
$45. On May 15th, the price falls to just $25. Many people, including
myself in the old days, raft this weekend in hopes of catching
spring water at a summer price. This year that will actually
work out. It won't be huge like two weeks ago, but it will be
above zero, and that is a good start.
Gas prices have not hit
$4 up here yet, but they are getting close. It was at $3.88 here
in Silver Cliff tonight. The Milwaukee fish wrap said that some
of you were paying $4 or $4.05 a gallon.
The feds tried to do a
little something about it this week, but didn't get anywhere.
The repubs tried to introduce a bill to open up areas of the
ANWR and other domestic sources to oil production. The dems continued
to block the 60 year supply of oil that we have here on principal,
and chose the path that we are on now as acceptable.
Also attempted was to have
the US stop buying the 70,000bpd that it is stocking into the
strategic petroleum reserve. Bush was against that, saying that
we should continue to buy until the last 27 million barrels are
replaced.
The only good news that
I have is that ethanol is falling out of favor. Apparently the
famine and food riots around the world have brought additional
scrutiny to the policy of forcing ethanol on our fuel supply.
It has not held up under scrutiny,and now even some environmental
groups are against the stuff. In spite of the legislative branch
being bought and paid for by the farm and ethanol producer's
lobby, they are actually looking at repealing the ethanol mandate.
How about making it voluntary? If you want to run garbage gas,
you can. Let the consumers and the free market decide.
A couple of guys were arguing
in the bar the other night about gas prices. One blamed Bush.
The other guy pointed out that prices didn't go stupid until
the dems took over both the house and senate two years ago. The
second point is interesting, but it is a lot deeper than any
of that. There are economic factors like the weak dollar driving
absurd amounts of money into commodities. There is also a tremendous
amount of wealth in baby boomer retirement investments, causing
a capitol bubble. Gas and oil are in play, and it is hurting
the economy.
There is also the problem
that the enviros have successfully blocked off almost every major
domestic resource, forcing us to ignore our 60+ year supply,
and import about 3/4 of our oil. Under Clinton, the number of
refineries fell dramatically, often due to new fuel blending
and environmental regulations. There is also a problem with all
of the regional boutique fuels.
The point here is not to
blame the environmentalists and democrats where credit is due.
It is to point out that there are a lot of factors in play. It
probably won't be easy untangling all of that stupidity. The
bubble will burst eventually, but many of those issues will remain.
What is my answer?
1) Tax money
earned speculating in energy markets by non-principals to impede
speculation amplifying normal market movements. This is a big
part of the gas price spike since Katrina.
2) Open domestic
resources including ANWR and the OCS to oil environmentally sustainable
oil production and tap into the 60 years of complete energy independence
already here. With that in place we should not be sending huge
amounts of our wealth to other nations.
3) Permit and
finance the building of at least 12 regional refineries to limit
exposure to events like Katrina hitting our currently 'eggs in
one basket' oil infrastructure located by the Gulf of Mexico.
It would also serve to take the monopoly out of the hands of
the few refiners remaining after the Clinton era.
4) Fix the debt
and deficit and put some meaning behind the dollar again. The
dollar is worthless, therefore it takes more dollars to buy foreign
oil.
5) Force the
environmental lobby to live by the policy they are forcing on
the rest of us, and make them pay for the damage that they do.
If you are against drilling here, find an equal alternative source
or shut up. Likewise, when the green harassment costs 300 million
dollars extra to permit a refinery, there should be a cost associated
with that, not to consumers, but to the people that caused the
expense. If you are against a refinery, fine, you need to find
40,000 of your little green buddies serious enough to swear off
gasoline, and we won't need the refinery. It is time to recognize
hypocrisy and stupidity, even when it hides behind a green mask.
Environmentalism is indeed a noble cause, but there are some
bad people doing otherwise unthinkable stuff, and getting away
with it in the name of the movement.
6) Reform the
EPA, ESA, and the various clean water & clean air acts, and
get a comprehensive environmental policy that does good without
turning us into a third word country. The current policy array
is a broken web. We don't need 50 regional blends of gas, find
a good one and run it nationwide. Likewise, it should not be
a 5-10 year 300 million dollar lawsuit party to get a permit
for a refinery or oil production field.
7) Provide incentives
in the marketplace to have consumers demand, and ultimately
manufacturers offer, more green and energy wise cars and trucks.
Start by taking the ethanol subsidy money and giving consumers
a rebate on domestic made increased efficiency vehicles.
8) Look at methods
of common propulsion on major highways, sort of a high speed
car wash chain, that you can hook onto and shut off your engine
once you are on the highway. A combination of solar and nuke
power can run those cleanly and very sharply reduce fuel consumption
on a national scale.
I can go on for a while,
but I really need to move on. All I am advocating is some common
sense, which barring other factors, would bring oil down to the
30-60 dollar a barrel range, and gas down below $2. Do that,
and I will send the $600 back. The economy will already be booming.
Speaking of booming, I
am a busy little boy these days. Between the web sites, the video
production, the rafting pictures and videos, and all the rest
of the stuff that I juggle, I am finding myself badly buried.
My apologies to everyone. I will catch up.
I saw a new event poster
this week. It was for the Town of Stephenson Memorial Day picnic
and parade. That is coming up Sunday May 25th. There are a few
other activities that day too. Here is the copy n paste from
a previous report..
On the 25th of May we have
the American Legion Memorial Day ceremony and picnic at the Silver
Cliff picnic grounds. On the same day there is a Memorial Day
parade and celebration in Mountain, a VFD fund raiser auction
in Crooked Lake, and the McCaslin Lioness Faire in Lakewood.
A few weeks later the Dusty Trails ATV Club is having their spring
poker run and pig roast on June 14th.
We should add the Lakes Country Sports Show in Lakewood June
28-29, 2008 to that list.
Well, I am off to pull an all nighter.
My video computer is clogged tight and I need to clean it up
to finish production on a few projects. My 3/4 terrabyte storage
array is maxed out, and so is my main raid set up. I have to
find a home for at least 200Gb of video to get back into production.
It takes about 20 minutes to burn a 4Gb data DVD for archiving.
It will be a full night.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Friday May 9th, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
We have a little bit of
a cloudy day today, and we are looking for a high of 60. There
was a little rain this morning, but it has now passed.
The weekend forecast will
keep us guessing a little, as usual..
There is a decent enough
storm headed toward the southern half of Wisconsin this weekend
and there is a slight chance that some stray showers could come
our way. The NWS put it at 40% Saturday and Sunday, though the
weather animation on TV did not support it that high until Sunday
afternoon. By Sunday night we should see some rain from it as
it inches closer.
I think that more of concern
is that we will see some below normal temps at night. Our normal
high temp is about 65 right now, and we are looking for 60 Saturday
with some sun, and 55 Sunday with some clouds. Of interest to
campers, the NWS is looking for 32 tonight and 37 Saturday night.
The spring green explosion
is in the barrel and ready to go off, but it hasn't yet. There
are fresh little leaves on a lot of the berry bushes and cherry
trees along with most of the hardwoods. The consensus last night
was that the next good rain would bring the foliage out in dramatic
fashion. It is a huge transformation.
The spring isn't lost on
the critters. Every trip away from the house brings sightings,
and often of a species not seen yet this spring. The turkeys
nesting across the road still sound off each time that we open
the door. The ticks are becoming more common.
A passing thought is that
with the foliage not up and the critters active, wildlife sightings
are much easier and more common. In June when the foliage is
full they only have to scamper about 50 feet and they are hidden.
Now you can still see 50-100 yards into the woods.
The Peshtigo River is still
running at nice levels. The gauge this morning was between a
+10 and a +11. Some of you may recall me referring to this as
a Goldilocks level, as in just right. It is big enough to take
a raft or one-man funyak, and the water is exciting, but not
too big for normal people. This weekend is Mother's Day, and
Kosir's has a buy one get one free rafting special for Mom this
weekend. Mom rafts free this weekend with a paid trip.
This week we saw a lot
of e-mail about a trail closure on the Woodland Trails system
down by W. No one got an answer because until about 10 minutes
ago, I didn't have one. Chris tracked it down, and now we know.
The trail on the north side of W that runs from Wheel Inn over
to Crossroads & the BP is closed. You can still get to all
of those places, but you need to take the trails south of W,
about twice the distance. Hopefully that helps.
Speaking of Crossroads,
we did a web site for them recently, and today we are introducing
it to you. It is at www.crosroadsbarandcampground.com . They offer food and drink, a
campground, and several cabins that they rent out. They are on
the ATV and snowmobile trails and right across from the BP on
W & Parkway Rd.
That is about it from here.
Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Tuesday May 6th, 2007
Greetings and welcome!
We have a beautiful day
unfolding this morning. The skies are clear and we are expecting
a 72 and sunny day. The frogs and birds are noisy already, and
the turkeys and chippies were sounding off as we opened the door.
It is clearly springtime.
We have progressed with
the greening a little since our last visit. The grass is getting
long enough to start thinking about getting the lawn mower going
in the next week or so. The hardwood trees finally have buds
in the initial stages of unfolding, as do some of the ground
foliage.
Recent wildlife sightings
include deer, bear, turkeys, grouse, woodcock, and a good number
of whitewater rafters.
The weather is very inviting
today, but it will not be tomorrow. We are expecting a storm
system that should bring us some showers and T-storms tonight
through Wednesday night. Most of the action looks focused on
tonight and the wee hours of Wednesday, when we could see 1/2"
or more of rain. There could be more if we see the T-storms.
The rest of the week looks decent enough with temps in the low
60s and the next mention of rain coming about Sunday.
The whitewater rafting
last weekend was a blast. The river was on the rise, and it was
providing plenty of action. There were spectacular flips and
swims, huge pop-ups and trashy surfs. People that challenged
the side curler at First Drop Saturday were most likely issued
an abrupt swimming lesson. That rapid was particularly trashy
over the weekend, and it made for some wild flips and swims.
It has been a great spring
on the Peshtigo River with consistently great water levels and
a lot of fun people taking advantage of it. The best part is
that it is going to stay that way for at least the near future.
My initial guess for the weekend is for water levels in the 10-12"
range, maybe more if the storm gets carried away Wednesday.
I am starting to see event
posters and such popping up for summer. On the 25th of May we
have the American Legion Memorial Day ceremony and picnic at
the Silver Cliff picnic grounds. On the same day there is a Memorial
Day parade and celebration in Mountain, a VFD fund raiser auction
in Crooked Lake, and the McCaslin Lioness Faire in Lakewood.
A few weeks later the Dusty Trails ATV Club is having their spring
poker run and pig roast on June 14th.
The land is greening up,
but we still have moderate fire danger. That is pretty common
at this time of year as last year's foliage dries out from winter
and is flammable. It is tempting on days like this to go and
clean up the yard and burn a little brush. That is all well and
good, just be careful about it until it greens up a little more.
Well that looks like the
end of my outline of topics, so I am going to go and get a taste
of that 72 and sunny coming up today. Have a good week and thank
you for visiting!
RJB
Monday May 5th, 2008
Just a quick correction..
In my last report I mentioned
that they were experimenting with letting the side by side utility
ATV (LUVs) on the ATV trails. The problem is that I said snowmobile
trails, not ATV trails. They are not letting them on the snowmobile
trails. The snowmobile clubs that do not have ATV trails will
not allow the LUV's on their system.
LUV's will be ok on designated
ATV trails on Pembine's trails, Dun-Good's, Near North's and
on Woodland Trails. Florence County is also involved in this
pilot program so that
people can ride from one county to the other, but not Oconto
county or any
others near by.
My accidentally substituting
snowmobile trail for ATV trail was a simple typo, but an important
one. Having people drive wheelers on closed snowmobile trails
could cause a lot of problems with land owners. It was a small
goof with potentially big consequences. My apologies, and thank
you Patti for letting me know.
I will be back tomorrow
with my regular update.
RJB
Friday May 2, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
We have a gray and dreary
morning in Silver Cliff this morning. There were some rumbles
of thunder last night along with some rain and pretty good downpours.
The rain is expected to continue today and tonight with as much
as 1-1.25" possible by tomorrow morning. They are showing
some good storms for later today and tonight. If you are driving,
use that Rain-X, and if you are camping, bring rain gear for
Friday night.
Right now the outlook for
Saturday is mixed. The majority of the storm will be well past
us, and we have one last trailing arm of the storm to look at
for rain. There isn't much to that final line on the forecasts,
but the general instability that it will bring in the atmosphere
will probably bring a passing shower or two in the afternoon.
The HPC QPF shows us in the 0-0.1" band for Saturday, but
the Green Bay NWS says 0.1-0.25" is possible. The bottom
line is there might be lingering shower in the AM, or a passing
shower or two in the afternoon, but unless the forecast changes,
the majority of the day will be cloudy and mostly rainless.
This storm is a lot like
the one late last week, but with less cold air. If you recall,
it got pretty windy as the storm moved out. There will be a little
of that due to the close proximity of the low pressure area,
but not like last weekend. The NWS wind forecast is for 9-15mph
winds occasionally gusting to 20 for Saturday, and 6-8mph on
Sunday. That sounds a lot better than 15-20 gusting to 40 or
50 last weekend. The storm is predicted to move away quickly,
so the winds should diminish as the day and weekend progress.
It won't be quite as cold
as last weekend either. The NWS is calling for 53 both days,
but the TV is saying 60 and sunny on Sunday.
Tomorrow is the first Saturday
in May, and that means the opening of game fishing season. From
here things look pretty promising for the big opener.
Having been a bartender
off and on since 1981, I am a big believer in moon cycles affecting
behavior. I have also seen it on the lake fishing when a major
kicks in and the slow fishing gets great. This weekend looks
very good in that direction. Monday is a new moon, putting this
weekend in prime time on the solunar tables. There are AM major
times coming up about 9:30 Saturday morning, and about 10:30
Sunday morning. Here is a link to some Wisconsin solunar tables.
For those of you that like
to dig in a little and head to the deep forest streams in search
of trout, roads should be good enough. The frost mud is a thing
of the past. Until today's rain, they were in good shape. What
the rain does to them in the meantime is the question. In general,
forest roads should be passable. You might find some mud off
road.
This weekend also brings
the first weekend back on the Marinette Co ATV trails since they
closed for spring breakup. In response to an e-mail, I am not
sure about Oconto County trails opening, I have not heard anything,
and there is nothing on their web sites. They probably do, I
just don't know.
Back to Marinette County
ATV trails, there is some news. This year they are experimenting
with letting Light Utility Vehicles (LUVs) on the ATV trails.
These are four and six wheelers like the Pug, John Deere Gator,
Polaris Ranger, and similar vehicles. You will need to get a
an annual trail pass at the courthouse. Over the winter Silver
Cliff passed an ordinance to allow them on town trails to facilitate
the county program.
New last year in the Marinette
County ATV scene is remote camping. They set it up where you
can buy a sticker and camp in the county forest along the ATV
trails in remote areas. That is pretty cool.
For those with ATVs that
prefer a campground setting, McClintock Park has an ATV camp
and trails to support it. From what I have heard, that has been
very popular.
As far as the Peshtigo
River Connection trail and the Vilas/Oneida/Iron County NHALSF
trails, the DNR went to absurd lengths last year to stop the
trails, and so far they are winning.
They gave us a lot of lip
service, we wasted a lot of time at meetings, and they promised
expanded opportunities and committed to working on the trails.
I haven't heard from them since last year, other than when they
mentioned the PRSF trail as an example of their commitment as
they recommended/advocated against the NLAHSF trails. It was
a good example, they went to absurd lengths to stop the trail
here too.
The Peshtigo River Connection
Trail would mean a lot more tourism in the area and a lot of
people with places up here already could ride from their cabin.
By my estimation, the area between Silver Cliff and Hwy W along
Parkway would see a million dollar a year boost in tourism revenue.
That would be huge, so don't expect people to give up on the
idea so easily.
Speaking of ATVs, I have
a hot tip for the mechanics. I had to replace a CV boot on a
friend's ATV and came up with a good way to get the big retainer
band attached. I tried all sorts of tools and even made one.
None were strong enough. I got creative and solved the problem
for $4. I got a big radiator clamp and a foot of nylon string.
I cut the string to go 3/4 of the way around the steel band,
leaving the latch area open. I put the clamp over that. I tightened
the radiator clamp and heard the band that I had wrestled with
for 4 hours snap into place after 2 minutes with my new tool.
The rope put pressure on the band, drawing it tight as the clamp
tightened. Most people won't care, or have any idea what I just
said, but one or two will be pretty happy. I will eventually
put a page on it in the ATV section.
I got a digital TV converter
box last week and have had a chance to try it out. It works ok,
but fringe stations are a little more difficult to pull in. On
the plus side, Channel 2.1 is non-stop weather out of WBAY in
Green Bay, including radar. That was worth the upgrade alone.
The picture is better too. Yes digital TV works in Silver Cliff,
and the local weather feature is great.
Spring continued to spring
this week. The grass is a lot greener, and will need a first
cutting soon. We are still waiting for the big green explosion
on the plants and hardwood trees. The ferns started emerging.
I saw a few birds that I haven't identified yet, and I saw a
black bear along the road between here and Wabeno Wednesday.
There were hundreds of deer out Wednesday night when I was out,
and they liked playing in and along the road. There were a few
more bugs, but nothing noxious or troublesome. There have been
reports of Tom turkeys fanning up pretty and chasing harems of
hens around.
Next week we are going
to see some May-like weather as temps return to the 60s or better.
There will be some nice days, and between that and the rain,
we should see some action on the big greening of the land. It
is an incredible transformation.
Whitewater rafting should
be fun this weekend as the Peshtigo River returns to more normal
levels. It is running steady at about a +10 this morning. I consider
that a near perfect level. You can run funyaks or two to four
man rafts, so it is big enough to be fun, but runnable for almost
anyone. The rock gardens are fun and splashy, and you don't get
stuck like when the water is low. It is a good level for anyone
from youth groups to adrenaline seekers depending on the boat
that you choose. I would be very happy if it ran at +10 all summer.
The rain today and tonight
might bring the river up a little, but I am not expecting a big
rise in the next day. The long narrow watershed takes as long
as 2-3 days for rain in the upper reaches to show up here. We
will see some rise from the lower watershed sooner, maybe an
inch or three on Saturday. Sunday will probably bring a rising
river and some fun trips with the nice day.
There is an event this
weekend, a benefit. A local man named Bob Sheppard is in need
of a kidney transplant, and they are having a fundraiser for
him. It is at the Firelane Bar (On C one mile west of A) this
Saturday. Those are usually usually pretty fun, so if you are
up this way check it out. Call it a good time for a good cause.
That is about it from here
this morning. Have a great weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Tuesday 4-29-08
Greetings and welcome!
I have seen a lot of changes
since our last visit, so I think that should be the theme of
today's visit.
One change that we had
was the weather. We were seeing 75 degree days a couple of days
last week, and that was really easy to get used to. The big series
of storms late last week changed all of that, and today will
probably be the nicest day since last Wednesday.
The weekend was brutal
with cold rain and really strong winds, all coupled with temps
cold enough to snow. It was quite nasty outside, I can attest
to that first hand. There were a lot of people rafting in that
weather, and that had to be cold. A lot of trees and branches
came down in the wind over the weekend, and we even lost power
for a few hours Saturday.
The storms were big enough
that they dragged a lot of cold air down from Canada, and that
has influenced our weather since. The temps have been struggling
to hit 50, and I do not see a 60 degree day in the forecast until
after the weekend, though several days might be pretty close.
Surprising to me, spring
kept springing. Last week Wednesday when I did my Lakewood-Wabeno
run, Waubee Lake and the Townsend Flowage were pretty well iced
over. Only the shorelines had open water. Five days later when
I went yesterday, they were wide open with no signs of ice. I
found that surprising considering all of the cold weather in
between. My best guess is that the high winds helped to grind
it up and finished it off. It sure wasn't the temps.
Likewise there was an amazing
transformation in the deep woods along the river. Two weekends
ago there was still a foot or more of snow and ice built up in
the really sheltered spots. This Saturday it had disappeared
and was replaced by a little soft ground that was quickly firming
up.
Gravel roads have come
a long way, and I am once again free to travel my favorite back
roads in search of photo ops and new places to explore.
Along that same line I
need to say that I was wrong in our last visit and previously
when I suggested that ATV trails would open late due to the above
mentioned foot of ice and snow. I got the call yesterday that
the ATV trails open up this Saturday May 1st. Color me surprised
that it dried up in time.
Yesterday or the day before
the county lifted the weight limits on roads affectionately know
as the road bans. That puts a lot of people that run heavy trucks
out of work for a little while, and from what I have seen, they
are back at it. That is good news not just for the workers and
companies, but also for people trying to have work done.
There has been a significant
greening of the grass, though a lot of trees and fields are just
getting started. The aspens have continued growing their almost
ghostly green delicate first leaves. The red maple buds have
progressed a little too. The pussy willows are getting full and
obvious. There is a little green with the grass and a few trees,
but the greening of a lot of the fields and hardwood trees has
not come yet.
Fire danger was a little
bit reduced with the rain & snow over the weekend, and with
the weather keeping people away from spring clean up projects
and campfires. It is traditionally a high fire danger time of
year with all of the dead foliage drying out from winter. Keep
that in mind until things green up a little more.
Someone mentioned that
this weekend brings the opening of fishing. That will make a
lot of people happy. I was visualizing people pushing ice floes
out of the way with the boat to get out on the lake, but it doesn't
look like it will go down that way. From what I have seen and
heard, lakes are open and ready to fish. Rumor has it that the
walleyes were up in the river spawning last week, so anglers
should be able to find them in their post spawn places. Until
the cold weather hit, water temps were rising fast last week.
It might be a better than average opener.
In the critters side of
the report, the frequent deer sightings in the ditches continue
as they browse the new grass day and night. Keep an eye out for
them, they blend in with the brown foliage. I saw a lot less
turkeys than I did the week before, but they are still about.
I saw some tracks last weekend that suggested that the local
black bear was out of the den, There was a lot of bark peeled
from trees to look for insect larvae which could be bears or
porkypines. We did have a pair of mallards stop briefly in the
pond last week, and Momma was checking out possible nesting sites
along the edges, but they did not stay.
Looking at the weather
this week, I see high temps of either 52 or 53 daily right through
the weekend. There is a storm predicted for late week. It looks
like most of the action will be Friday or Friday night, but there
is a chance that it could linger a little into the weekend. That
taste of 75 and sunny last week couldn't return fast enough for
me, but it doesn't look like it will happen this week.
In the whitewater rafting
department... First, you should be aware that I do a regular
update on the Kosir's site now on the Rapids Report. It is a
lot like I do here or on the Big Snow Page, but focused on rafting.
At the moment the river
is falling from the peak flows brought on by the snow melting.
We are still in the high water alert levels, with the river running
at about +16" and about 1,000cfs. That is really fun water,
and if you have ever been frustrated by low water, you should
paddle the Pesh now. It will continue to fall, but with the winter
and spring we have had, the watershed remains well saturated.
I think that we have a lot to look forward to in the coming weeks,
and even into early summer. With the La Nina continuing our wet
weather pattern, it might be a good summer too.
I do have an even this
weekend.. There is a benefit for a local guy named Bob Sheppard
up at Firelane. Bob needs a kidney transplant, and like a lot
of us up here, he is not a man of means. You might know him for
those really nice log cabin bird feeders that he often donates
to be raffled off at charitable events. If you are in the neighborhood,
stop in at Firelane and get in on some raffles and stuff.
I got word recently that
the DNR has recommended to the natural resources board that the
proposed Vilas County NHALSF ATV trail planning should be abandoned,
and that the Oneida/Iron County Trails were difficult at best.
They did hold up the Peshtigo River Connector Trail the we advocated
the last few years as an example of a regional dialect and their
commitment to expanding ATV opportunities in the state.
That is pretty accurate.
I checked around and no one has heard from the DNR in 8 months,
or anything about progressing on the trail, and the last time
we heard, they were still finding new and creative ways to say
no. I guess that was a good example.
Well, it is time for me
to get back to work. I will be back later in the week with the
latest. Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Friday 4-25-08
Greetings and welcome!
We had some very nice days
this week. Yesterday was in the 70s and just a really nice day
outside. The day before wasn't bad either.
Spring has continued to
spring. The maple and aspen buds are progressing, the grass is
a little greener, and there are a few more bugs. It was great
having above normal temps and sunny days this week. Too bad that
it is over for a while.
We are in the first stages
of a very interesting weather scenario. We have a double low
pressure system that will come our way with one storm after the
next. The atmosphere downstate will get juicy, and thunderstorms
are likely today and tonight. If it gets sunny and warm, some
bigger storms could form, and possibly go severe.
The forecast models are
showing both storms hitting primarily down state and in far NW
WI. We are in the gap between the heavy areas, but we won't miss
out completely. It is raining now, and has been off and on most
of the night. The NWS is looking for about 1/2" of rain
and maybe more if we get T-storms. It seems a little low, but
we will see.
The forecast is a little
mixed, but it looks like we will dodge the rain for the most
part Saturday. The NAM is showing us still in the boundaries
of the storm, but no precip in the SW quadrant where we will
be. The GFS is showing a similar set up, but with a minor chance
of show showers. The 850 maps are showing it cold enough to snow,
and some wind to boot.
The NWS is predicting a
windy day Saturday with a high of 46, and a 20% chance of rain
mixed with snow. Sunday will bring a chance of rain showers late
in the day as the next systems approaches. Look for an increasingly
cloudy day and a high near 44.
The forecast goes down
hill from there with rain and snow Monday, and a cold week with
next Thursday's high of 51 the warmest of the week. These are
some bigger storms, and their passage will usher in some cold
air. That will be hard to take after our taste of 75 degree sunny
days this week.
Chris said that someone
e-mailed about the Marinette County ATV trails. They are not
open yet, and I have not head anything about them yet. Usually
I get about a week's notice. From my travels in the woods, it
will probably be a couple of weeks. Some sheltered areas still
are holding a good bit of snow and ice. The frost hasn't even
started to come out of the ground there yet.
The whitewater rafting
on the Peshtigo will be great again this weekend. We hit a peak
of 32 a few days ago, and it is down to about 26 or 27 now. That
is still huge water, you won't miss the couple of extra inches.
The rain earlier this week did not make a lot of difference to
the river, but it does not matter. I am pretty comfortable predicting
water levels over 20 for Saturday morning.
If you do visit the area
in the near future, you will want to keep a sharp eye on the
sides of the road. This week it was very obvious that the turkeys
are mating. Quite a few times I saw Tom turkeys herding their
harem off of the road as we passed. There have also been a lot
of deer in the ditches at night. Apparently they are attracted
to the new grass sprouting on sunny roadsides.
That pretty much sums it
up for today. If you have the desire and the time, go rafting
soon, the water got pretty big this spring. I suspect that we
will have good water levels for a while.
Have a good weekend and
thank you for visiting!
RJB
Tuesday April 22, 2008
High Water Alert-Peshtigo
River is at 32! Raft this week or weekend!
There is so much to talk
about, so much has changed and happened since our last visit
that it can only be spring in Silver Cliff..
First up,., The Peshtigo
River is running really big right now. Really really big. Weekend
levels started out at a little over 26 on Saturday morning and
hit 30 Sunday. I thought it had crested, but it came up two more
inches Monday. For the uninitiated, that is huge whitewater rafting.
Not just huge, but epic, legendary, and maybe even memory of
a lifetime memorable. They run trips 7 days a week.
. The huge snow pack got
humbled in all but the most sheltered areas by warm days and
above freezing nights last week. Between that and last week's
late week stalled rainstorm dumping 2+" on the Peshtigo
River's far northern watershed, we hit the jackpot and got a
huge river. I have a lot of video footage and pictures to share
once it is all sorted out. The river will be excellent for rafting
for the foreseeable future. If you were ever frustrated by low
water on the Peshtigo, paddle it now or in the next two weeks.
This is cool.
This weekend was major
fun with the huge water and the many people that came to play
in the river while it is in it's prime. I use the present tense,
because the river is still over 30". If you want to raft
while the river is huge and extreme, get on the phone to Kosir's.
World class whitewater adrenaline buzzes are only $45.
Beyond rafting, lot has
changed in the last week. Nine days ago on Saturday April 12th,
I rode my snowmobile to the raft co to do the pictures because
between the mud under and the heavy snow on top, the driveway
was outside of the ability of my car. Yesterday afternoon I worked
outside in a T-shirt and didn't need a flannel until about midnight
when I was letting the fire go down to it's final embers. The
ground was firm and free of snow or frost-out mud, but it was
still a little moist. That was a little different than 8-12"
of snow a week ago, but.. one sheltered area that I visit still
has a foot of ice plus snow on the top.
Sunday and Monday were
spectacular weather days. The frogs in the little pond are almost
deafening they are so loud. There are a variety of choruses,
but three main songs. They all go quiet when you step into the
light.
All of the excitement at
the rafting company wore me out this weekend. I got a little
sleep, came back like a champ, and put in a good day Monday.
Eventually productivity ramped down and I traded in the computer
for steaks on the barbie, a campfire, and a frosty beer as the
sun set on a 74 degree day in a big red orange way.
I did the fire later with
the lights in the wood shed and back door blazing. The visitors
to the lights last night were mostly those little white moths
that look a little like gypsy moths, but aren't. I did have one
bigger moth come spiraling in, but he was gone before I could
get a good look.
I will admit it, I marvel
at the insect world, and we are a honey hole for unique species
and local variations. Most aren't noxious, and most are really
uniquely adapted. If I ever retired, I would consider photographing
and cataloging the amazing diversity of 'bugs' that we have in
this area.
Chris went inside about
an hour after sunset after claiming to have caught two ticks
crawling. That surprised me since I had been rooting around the
wood lot for dirty or irregular wood for the fire for hours,
and I didn't see bug one. I did eventually come up with a single
tick later, the first of the year for me. Delightfully, the gators
were absent, as were gnats, and any other bugs that bugged ya.
It was sooo nice out.
At the end of my little
break, I was watching the fire go down and getting ready to head
in when a big orange red full moon started rising on the SE horizon.
It was pretty nice, so I ran inside and dragged Chris out to
see it, right as it went behind clouds for 3 minutes. She caught
a glimpse of it at first, and right as she was about to give
up, it came back in prime form. It was worth the wait.
Spring has brought the
critters out. Deer are browsing the new green grass in sunny
ditches, and are plentiful along roads. (Watch out!) The chippies
and birds are zooming around in the spring mating ritual fashion.
When I was quiet later by the fire, our local deer came through,
some coyotes were howling, and by the noises that I heard, my
local bobcat might be in heat.
Spring is not lost on the
plant world. Sunny spots are starting to get green grass. The
maples have their first red buds starting. The poplars are getting
their first very light green leaves.
In spite of the rain last
week and the wet ground from frost out, there is some fire danger.
All of the dead foliage, grass, and leaves from last year are
drying out quickly and represent a pretty good fire hazard. It
is an annual ritual of spring. Based on what I have seen, it
won't be long until we green up nicely.
The road bans are still
on around the area. We are making good progress drying out, and
they should start coming off of some roads soon. There are still
a few soft spots in sheltered areas. My driveway is solid again
except for in the shady spot..
It looks like we have more
nice weather ahead this week. There are some scattered showers
and storms expected today and Thursday night to Friday night.
Other than that, this week and weekend look ok. We are looking
for a high of 67 today, 74 tomorrow, 66 Thursday, and highs between
55-60 for Friday and the weekend. Saturday should be partly cloudy,
but later Sunday they introduce a slight chance of showers in
advance of a system for early week.
Well I have to get back
to work now. I have tons of pictures and videos to sort through
from the weekend, and then a few web sites to do too. Eventually
I will share some of them.
Have a good week and thank
you for visiting!
RJB
Friday April 18th, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
We are going to talk about weather and
rafting a lot today because there is some really exciting stuff
going on.
This week brought weather that was in the
fifties and sixties. More importantly to the thaw process, it
also brought overnight low temps in the 40-45 degree range. That
never gave the snow pack a chance to freeze back up, and we are
seeing some significant melting.
As a result of that melting, the Peshtigo
River is running big and still rising. As of 7pm last night the
USGS gauge shows it running at about 20" on the bridge gauge
and at a volume of 1,130cfs. For the non-rafters, that is huge,
really fun water levels for whitewater rafting and paddling of
kayaks and such.
Now, the melting had the river rise probably
more than 4" yesterday. That is pretty good. Knowing the
delayed nature of the river from it's long narrow watershed,
I suspect that there is more melt water coming. Last weekend
I guessed that it would be at 22 at 8:30am Saturday morning.
I think that I would have been right on, except for one little
detail. It is raining. A lot.
We are seeing rain this morning, and a
good bit of it. According to the radar, it is centered very nicely
right over the Peshtigo River watershed, and radar returns show
.5-.75 inches on the ground so far. Frequently those are a little
under what I see in my rain gauge here.
The rain is part of a stationary boundary
set up over southeastern Wisconsin. This is a very slow moving
feature, and as a result, the areas getting rain will get several
days of it. The forecast models vary a little, but both the GFS
and NAM have the rain actually moving northwest as we get into
Saturday, clearing the way for a nicer day. They offer similar
QPFs, with 0.5-1" of rainfall.
The perfect storm...
So let me get this all sorted out.. We
are at peak melting of a big heavy snow pack. We have had about
an inch of rain in the watershed tonight, and there is another
inch on the way by noon Saturday. The river is running at 20
after rising 4" yesterday. No, I don't think that it will
be 22 on Saturday morning. I have upped my guess to the 28-30
range, with a chance of more Sunday and Monday. That depends
on the rain.
Here is a picture that I took at Second
Drop about 4 or 5 years ago the last time that it hit 28..
There are nine people in that boat, and
they are having fun. Lots of it.
You really should call Kosir's if you are
inclined to raft when it is big. I haven't seen a set up like
this in a few years.
We are expecting rain today, tonight, and
into Saturday morning. As I mentioned before, they expect the
rain to actually move northwest and clear the way for a cloudy
but decent enough weekend.
Stationary fronts are notoriously difficult
to predict, and as a result there is a chance that it won't come
down quite the way it looks at the moment. The NWS has a good
take on it with rain chances of; 90% today, 70% tonight, 50%
Saturday and 20% Sunday. Look for highs of 44 today, 54 Saturday,
and 62 Sunday, and lows around 40 both nights.
Next week there is more, possibly much
more, rain in the forecast, along with some warm weather. That
is all well and good, but lets see how the short term forecast
goes before we get too involved with it.
There are a lot of people expected this
weekend, and with the big water, the weekend should be a very
fun one around Kosir's. Saturday night our very talented friend
Bob "The Piano Man" Heckler will be playing at the
Rapids Resort next door to Kosir's. Look for tunes from Boston,
Tom Petty, Billy Joel, and other fun stuff. It is always fun
when Bob comes around, and the place should be rockin.
Spring is springing..
My little frog pond has gotten much larger
in the past 3 or 4 days. Chris said the frogs started up today.
Vreep. The deer were very plentiful in the ditches last night
as they browsed on the new grass up by the road. I probably saw
50 deer in 8 miles, and dared not go over 40. Also spotted this
week, the chippies are out of hibernation, and chasing each other
about in a spring fashion. I saw my first gator (mosquito) this
week, and someone told me that they found the first ticks. It
really is spring!
I am looking forward to the next month
or so. When this area awakens from the drab winter foliage and
starts the green explosion, it is indeed a magical transformation.
The field that is brown with old dead vegetation will be waist
deep in ferns by the end of May. The forests that I can see 1/4
mile into will be walls of green. Then come the trilliums, marsh
marigolds, and the other spring flowers. I am also expecting
the early bug of spring, the gnat, to appear soon.
It is a very exciting time this weekend
with big water on the river, fun people expected, and live music
at the Rapids Resort. The weekend will start out wet, but get
warmer and drier as it goes, in theory anyway.. Spring is springing.
It is all very exciting.
Have a good weekend and thank you for visiting!
RJB
4/15/08
Greetings and welcome!
I apologize for the two part report. The
past few days have been interesting and I am working hard to
catch up. There were a few topics in the outline that never were
touched on yesterday by the time that I had to go. Let's start
with the weather..
Someone asked over the weekend if our winter
precip patterns were going to last into summer. We have had a
decent level of precipitation this winter, and it would be good
to break the cycle of drought summers that we have had. The short
answer is yes.
We had a very strong LaNina winter this
year, and it was good to us in the rain and snow department.
I just read the fresh ENSO discussion from the CPC, and we are
looking at a continued LaNina trend through at least the next
3 months. The strength of the LaNina is declining, but not by
much. The forecast models varied considerably after that 3 month
timeframe, and some had the LaNina lasting into next year.
The weather pattern that we saw this winter
was very typical of a LaNina pattern. The LaNina is expected
to continue, and it stands to reason that the weather we have
seen will remain typical this summer. It would be great to see
rainfall at more regular intervals than last year's 6 week wait,
and that is looking somewhat promising.
Gravel roads and driveways have been an
interesting adventure in recent days. Sunny spots were drying
out last week and actually firming up pretty good. Friday night's
snow on top of the mud created by the 2" of rain Thursday
and Friday made them insane slippery . Saturday morning it took
a 4x4 or some really fancy driving to manage passage. The warmth,
wind, and sun over the next few days should help dry them up
again. For now the gravel roads and driveways run the gamut from
a little muddy but not bad, up to forget about it unless you
have a nice 4x4. It will probably be that way for another week
or two.
Likewise, I have not heard anything about
the road bans being lifted yet. The warm sunny weather this week
should help in the progression toward that.
Here are a few pictures from the weekend
rafting..
We have been busy this spring writing new
web sites, and today there is new stuff to know about.
Over the winter we did a few web sites
and some work for a local resident and web site visitor that
is also an event promoter. He is involved in the Fishing-Boating-Outdoor
Sports Show in Milwaukee, The Bass, Boats, and Bait Expo coming
up at Four Seasons Resort, the first weekend in July, and a brand
new Lakes Country Sports Show in Lakewood the last weekend of
June. You can learn about all of these events at http://www.fishingboatingoutdoor.com. I will
be reminding you of those as they get closer.
Another cool event that they are putting
together is something called "Girls Gone Fishing".
It is a 4 day 3 night getaway and fishing clinic for the ladies.
It is held on High Falls Flowage at Pine Acres Resort with well known (Female)
hunting and fishing guide Tas Kaliska. They have some cool activities
and features to that event, and the concept in general is a great
one.
Also be aware that Pine Acres has a few
boat slips left for rental this summer on High Falls Flowage.
They should go fast, so check into it if you are interested.
A place that we have a web site in progress
for is an outfit called Lake Noquebay Rentals. They have cottages
for rent on the lake, and while they are filling up, they have
an opening for the opening day of fishing. Their new web site
is in progress at www.lakenoquebayrentals.com.
We have also recently completed web sites
for Cramer's
Brown Jug and Log Cabin Gas Station, the Peshtigo River Inn, and several more are
in progress.
One last note, be aware that I started
an event calendar on the right hand column of the page. Please
let me know if you have any events to add.
Well, that is the end of yesterday's outline,
and unfortunately the end of my time here. I am off to go and
embrace another full day in the great northwoods. Have a good
week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Monday April 14th, 2007
Greetings and welcome!
Wow what a weekend..
The storm was a dandy in the end. It started
moving toward sleet late afternoon Friday, and eventually it
became all snow. The wet heavy snow on top of the wet/slushy
roads was indeed greasy. The snow and wind raged Friday night.
Saturday morning brought a very white world with a lot of snow
in the trees and a good bit on the ground.
Totals varied widely in my travels. Here
I would estimate it at 6" or so, maybe a little more. A
few miles away where we go to the river, I am sure that there
was 10-12" on the road. I put a 5 gallon bucket out in the
yard Thursday to gather totals. It is still a block of ice in
front of the wood burner, so the totals are not exact at the
moment. The block of ice and melt water are just over 2.25".
The 4-5" of snow hasn't finished melting, so that will add
to the total a little. I will estimate our precip from the storm
at 2.5". It was a dandy storm.
I will point out that had the whole storm
been snow, that 2.25 to 2.5 inches at a 12 or 16:1 ratio would
have added up to 25-30 inches of heavy snow, and 36-40"
if it were puffier stuff. We got off pretty easy on that end
of it. I am sure that there are areas north of here with much
more snow than we saw.
With a couple of inches of rain from that
storm on top of Tuesday's storm, I figured that the river would
be roaring for the weekend. It never rose from Tuesday/Wednesday's
storm, and actually went down 5" Saturday morning after
the big storm. It just defied all reason. The best guess was
that there was a slush or ice dam upstream, but there still should
have been more of a rise.
They did have raft trips at Kosir's Saturday
morning even with the snow. The river was open, the people were
there, and the scenery on the river was beyond description with
all of the snow in the trees. In spite of the challenges, it
was a good call, and the rafters got a first class scenic ride.
I ended up riding a snowmobile down there
for the first trip and hitching a ride in one of their 4x4 trucks
to get to the river. The gravel roads, including my driveway,
were deep in mud from all of the rain, and they had 6-12"
of wet heavy really slippery snow on top of the mud. That was
outside of the ability of any of my cars.
Between trips I packed the driveway down
with the snowmobile and took a wild ride to get the car and equipment
out. It was indeed a wild ride, but I have to admit that I liked
it. The mud bogging on the way to the river was pretty fun too.
A few hours after the sun set and the whole mess froze up I drove
back up the driveway like it was an asphalt road. A few hours
and 20 degrees made a world of difference.
On the way to the river Saturday the amount
of snow that we encountered was amazing. We got out of the truck
and immediately hit knee deep snow in the ditch. The snow prior
to Friday had packed down and you could walk on top of it most
of the time. There were some spots on the path that you would
sink knee deep, and were still on top of snow. The part that
amazed me is how wet and sturdy the snow was. It was well saturated
and Saturday enough to make bricks out of.
Now I understand why the river has not
been coming up when it would rain and snow. The new theory is
that there is such a huge mass of snow built up in the sheltered
areas that any rain or snow just adds to the mass and never runs
off. What we have seen in the river so far is the result of melting
in sunny areas. The big stuff is still very much intact, and
hasn't even started to melt. Based on my attempts to melt my
precip bucket in front of the wood burner, it will be there for
a while, and that is just from the Thursday-Sunday storm. There
is a lot more on the ground under that.
I am tempted to go and dig up a square
foot of the the snow pack, melt it down, and see what we really
have for water built up. I have a hunch that it would be surprising.
My 5 gallon buckets left out last fall were overflowing when
I emptied them Thursday, and my little frog pond is filling up
nicely.
We will be starting the melting process
again this week. Today will be sunny and 50-55. The rest of the
week and the weekend should be in the 60-68 degree range for
high temps. I don't think that we will see 70, but we might Wednesday.
This part will make a difference.. From Tuesday night through
the weekend, we will be looking at above freezing overnight low
temps. That should help speed up the melting that we are bound
to see, more so since everything isn't freezing up on a nightly
basis.
If I can wait that long, I will be hard
to find Wednesday. The outlook is for sunny and 68, and I am
not sure that the first day like that of spring involves a computer
terminal. Tuesday is supposed to be sunny and 63, and that sounds
nice too.
There is a storm possible for about Thursday
that could bring a half inch or so of rain. It is not a big storm,
but it will bring some precip if it comes as shown this morning.
It will be rain unless something changes between now and then.
Well, I have a few more bits to cover and
some pictures to share, but at the moment I am seriously out
of time. I will be back by tomorrow morning with some follow
up.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Friday April 11th, 2008 1pm
We have a major spring storm going on as
I type. The first wave came last night. Here there was a lot
of wind, rain mixed with snow, ice chunks that think that they
were snow, and generally nasty conditions. We did see a few inches
of sturdy high moisture snow last night before the rain came
and pounded it down. There is maybe an inch or two of slush on
the ground and it is raining.
Farther north the storm brought snow. Wabeno,
Goodman, Florence, Crandon, Pembine, Niagara, and other towns
north of Hwy 8 closed schools, and in one case delayed the start
a few hours. In far NW WI near Superior they saw blizzard conditions
with 6" of snow and 60mph winds.
We were right on the rain/snow line, and
so far the rain has come out on top. All of the models agreed
that we would see between 2-2.5" of rainfall equivalent
between Thursday and Saturday noon. The question was precip type.
So far the answer is mostly rain.
This afternoon looks like continued rain
until after dark when it is forecast to change over to snow.
The NWS is looking for a possible slushy inch of accumulation
this afternoon if it does change over early. After 8pm they are
looking for it to change more toward snow, and they are looking
for a total overnight accumulation of about 4".
Right now the biggest challenge facing
Friday night travelers headed this way is some wind and some
rain. They are looking for winds in the 15-20mph range gusting
to 25. After 8pm when it changes over they might see some snow,
mostly north of Crivitz or maybe 64. That is a lot better than
the forecast originally looked. At the moment the county road
by my house is pretty well clear and roads should improve as
you go south out of the mixed precip area. Travel is not the
challenge that it looked like yesterday when they were talking
about 11+ inches of wet heavy snow. If you are traveling, don't
forget the Rain-X.
It looks like wind is going to be a factor
in our weekend weather. Both days are showing winds that will
start in the teens and gust to about 25mph. Saturday looks like
some trailing snow showers are possible, and there is a high
of about 35 expected. Sunday the clouds should part a little
and bring a high of about 42.
The storm was a big powerful one, and very
exciting for a weather buff like myself. At one point the swirling
giant had moisture taps in the Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico,
and one coming across Mexico from the Pacific. That is a big
storm and a lot of moisture being transported.
The three storms this week looked like
winter was throwing one final big tantrum as it is shown the
door. Next week the pattern switches up a little and we should
see more desirable 50s and 60s and less big weather. The forecast
always changes after a big storm, so I will forego details at
the moment. Suffice it to say that it looks a lot warmer and
nicer than this week was.
This weekend is the first weekend of rafting
at Kosir's. We were expecting to start last Saturday, but the
river was too iced up. That changed this week, and all weekend
trips are on. There should be decent water and probably very
scenic conditions if there is some snow Saturday.
Today is also my first day back cooking
fish at the Rustic after their 9 day shutdown. I am looking forward
to doing a little sampling when I get there. I do like my fish
frys, and hopefully make a pretty good one. My beer battered
walleye is amazing.
Something that I was not aware of until
yesterday.. the Tuesday snow was wet and heavy, and when the
wind came after the snow, it took down a lot of trees. Many of
the fallen were old or rotten, but not all. I saw some bigger
trees come down and a lot of smaller saplings under 4" diameter.
I was surprised at the amount of fallen trees between here and
Crivitz yesterday since I lost only one big branch and a couple
of small birches. The heavy snow & wind took a lot of trees
down. I already have plans to go and cut a a few trailers of
prime January wood once the ground dries a little.
Well, it has been a stormy week, but we
are almost past it. Once the weather breaks, it looks pretty
decent, and a lot of people will welcome that change. Count me
among them. If I can't ride my snowmobile it might as well be
70 and green outside. I do like that we had a wet week, but look
forward to the end.
That is about it for today. Have a good
weekend, and thank you for visiting!
RJB
April 9th, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
We had a nice little snow storm yesterday
and last night. It started late afternoon with rain changing
to snow. By sunset enough had fallen that there were puddles
in the low spots in the road and the snow was starting to cover
high spots.
It snowed for a while, and then dry air
moved in for a few hours. When the snow restarted it came a little
heavier. Here are a few shots from around the yard at sunrise.
The snow on the front step measured out
at 3", but that understates how much moisture actually fell.
The shed roof looks more like 4-5", and there was a lot
of rain before it snowed. It will not affect roads much longer,
the April morning sun will eat this much snow quickly. They did
delay school in Crivitz, Goodman/Dunbar, and Pembine by 2 hours
this morning. The power did go out a couple of times very briefly
overnight, but it is back on.
It was a very pretty start to the day.
RJB
April 8th, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
We have some very interesting weather to
talk about today, and a host of other topics. Buckle up and let's
dive in!
First up we are under a winter storm watch.
There is a storm headed our way that the NWS says could bring
as much as 6-8" of wet heavy snow between Tuesday afternoon
and mid-day Wednesday. We will be close to the rain/snow line,
which indicates that we could see some heavy precip whichever
way it goes. The TV weather guy was showing some real dark blue
over us on the forecast animation.
The NAM is showing a lot of precip out
of this one, something on the order of 1.25" of rainfall
equivalent. The HPC tones that down to about 0.75", still
not a bad mid-week storm. If the higher numbers came true, at
a wet heavy snow ratio of 6:1-12:1, 7.5-15" is possible
in theory. Look for numbers on the low end, but still a messy
heavy snow.
Looking ahead, the models have a peach
of a storm coming for Thursday night through Saturday. Before
we get too far with this discussion I want to point something
out. One of my unwritten rules of forecasting weather is that
the forecast beyond a big storm is usually not very accurate.
A lot can change when a big storm comes through. Subsequent forecasts
can change dramatically, and usually do.
In this case, the models have been very
consistent on the late week storm for a while. I have been watching
it since last week, and there is/has been good agreement and
consistency in the various outlooks. I am seeing a strong storm
lasting a couple of days. The first wave looks big. The NAM is
showing a QPF of 1.25-1.50" between 6am Thursday and 6am
Friday, and another 0.25-0.5 or so to follow. The GFS is the
most conservative at 1.00-1.5" total.
The next question is will it be rain or
snow. It looks like it will be close. The way that the models
show it, we will see the big first wave as rain, and then noteworthy
snow (6"+) from Friday afternoon through late Saturday.
Anyway, we have a good storm coming tonight
and Wednesday that could be a big one for wet heavy snow, or
maybe just a good dose of rain and sleet. There is a big late
week storm likely (NWS says 70%) that will bring more of the
same. Yowza! It will also be a cold week, with highs in the 40-45º
range, and lows around 30 right through the weekend.
I am keeping a close eye on the rise of
the Peshtigo River this week. It has made good progress over
the past few days and is now up to about a +8 and 592CFS. There
was a lot of ice on the river, and it was not runnable for the
raft companies last week. There were some awesome ice formations
though. Zak and John from Kosir's
took some pictures when they were scouting late last week. I
made a page of them, and here is a link. Here are a couple to look
at now.
The Pesh should start clearing the ice
out. The water has come up about 7" and doubled in volume
since those pictures were taken. Considering the forecast discussion
that we just finished, I suspect that it will be dramatically
higher soon.
I am looking forward to a good spring rafting
season at Kosir's. There is a decent snow load in the watershed,
and since the spring has been cold, a lot of it is still there.
Between the storms and the snow pack, there is some decent promise
of high water the next couple of weeks. If you want the latest,
check out the Rapids Report on the Kosir's web site, I update
that daily with water levels and a few paragraphs.
Speaking of the next couple of weeks, I
am liking what I am seeing on the longer ends of the 16 day GFS
forecast. It looks like the beginning of next week will get nice
and warm, and it progresses toward the end of the timeframe.
The way that I am seeing it, there are a lot of nice 60-70+ degree
days ahead, starting in about a week.
I am coming to the conclusion that we don't
have a lot of frost in the ground. The sunny areas of my driveway
have firmed up well, and the same goes for the sunny spots in
the yard. There is plenty of mud to be found too, it is a function
of snow depth and how sheltered the spot is from the sun.
My little frog pond opened up over the
weekend as a result of our 60+ degree days late week. It is just
getting started, so it isn't very deep, and I have not heard
the first frog yet. I suspect that they will start up any day
now.
The warm weather also woke up the insect
and animal world. I spotted a variety of small bugs the other
day, and yesterday saw a full sized butterfly fly by. Also spotted
yesterday was a decent sized salamander out on the prowl.
Saturday we went for a little ride to check
out the ice where they drew down the water level on Caldron Falls
Flowage. There is a lot of huge ice out there, and it is draped
over rocks and points along the shoreline. I shot a little video
of it, and will add a short clip or two later today.
Conclusion..
Well, it looks like an interesting remainder
of the week as winter goes out with a double tantrum. Heavy snow
is probable in both storms. The river is on the rise, and we
hope to start rafting Saturday in pretty high water levels. Spring
is winning as roads dry up and insects and critters start emerging
again.
I expect to update again once the storm
comes, and generally keep you up to date with both storms. I
will also be back later today with the ice video.
Have a good week and thank you for visiting!
RJB
April 4th, 2008
Greetings and welcome!
Happy Friday one and all!
It is supposed to be the opening of the
spring whitewater rafting season tomorrow, and we are still not
sure if they are running. It has been a cold spring and the ice
is not cleared off of the Peshtigo River in some places yet.
There is a chance that it could have opened up enough overnight,
but they will not know until the guys scout it again later this
morning. It has made some amazing progress in the last few days,
so it will be close.
It was a strong LaNIna winter, and that
pattern continues through spring. We are seeing cooler than normal
temps and occasionally active weather. In our case, we are still
looking for our first 60 degree day of the year. As far as active,
the 16 day GFS is showing six storms possible for us in the next
two weeks.
The weekend weather looks ok until the
end. Today and Saturday should be mostly clear and have a high
of 54 both days. The NWS is moving a storm in for late Saturday
night and Sunday that could bring some rain. The forecast previously
had the storm holding off until Sunday night into Monday. Last
night and today the NWS moved the timing of that storm up a little.
Sunday comes with a forecast of cloudy skies, a high of 52, and
a 50% chance of rain.
Folks have been talking about our April
1-2 storm this week. Apparently Marquette(MI) and surrounding
areas got spanked pretty good. Reports on TV varied from 18-24
inches of snow, all powered by 50mph winds. The official total
from the Marquette NWS was 15.8". The snowmobile trails
were supposed to close 4-1, but rumor has it that they reopened
them around Marquette.
Closer to home we saw about 5" of
snow with the bottom inch well saturated by rain water. That
made gravel roads and driveways, along with everything else,
pretty messy. It was strange driving on soft gravel with it pulling
you around and slowing you down all at the same time that it
was slippery with 5" of snow.
My driveways are a mixed bag. The sunny
spots are a little soft, but not bad. The shaded area is sloppy
with snow and mud. Missing this year (so far) is the axle deep,
4x4 Suburban burying Jello mud. I am not sure if the freeze/thaw
cycle has kept the frost from coming out, or if it let it out
a little at a time. I have a feeling that we will still see some
mud.
When I was out and about I saw a few of
the gravel back roads. I saw them at a distance because it was
not a place that I belonged in a small car. Some of the gravel
back roads are pretty ugly between the mud and snow, and the
big puddles from the melting.
The ATV and snowmobile trails closed as
of April 1st. The sun is so hot at this time of year that it
will eat 5" of snow a day. I predicted that Monday's snow
would be gone by sunset. It was not very sunny, but on Tuesday
I woke to about an inch of snow in the driveway, and it was 'rotten'
from the Monday sun erosion. It was gone by mid-morning in all
but shady spots. That puts snowmobilers in the position that
they have to ride literally hours after it snows.
Then there is the soft ground.. With all
of the mud, the clubs don't want ATVs or snowmobiles making ruts
and angering landowners. That is why the snowmobile trails close
4-1, and ATV trails between April 1 and about the first or second
weekend in May.
As I have mentioned in previous reports,
it is the quiet time of year in our neighborhood. I think that
the only real tourism draw right now is that there is an early
trout season. Rivers are open in a lot of less sheltered spots.
I saw the Rat, Oconto, and Peshtigo River with open areas, as
well as Otter Creek and a lot of smaller streams.
Beyond the fishing and rafting, there isn't
much shaking. The folks at the Rustic took advantage of this
and closed up for 9 days from 4-1 to 4-9. They reopen 4-10. I
have visited a few times and they are cleaning and fixing madly.
We have a rare Friday off of doing the fish fry there, and since
Cramer is pretty proud of his fish, we are headed over to the
Brown Jug
to give it a try.
It has also been fairly quiet on the critter
front. The pond is still frozen over, so there are no spring
frogs yet. The chippies have not come out yet, so the yard is
quiet. The birds have been returning slowly and we saw a few
new specimens this week.
One thing that I noticed was a lot of pileated
woodpecker damaged trees. There are patches of forest with rotten
aspen trees and they are seriously ripped up. There are big piles
of chips at the bottom of the trees, and in some places they
have thinned the tree flat or pecked right through it. I will
grab some pictures the next time that I go that way.
Anyway, these trees are seriously ripped
up. I was wondering if that since it is spring and all, if that
was some sort of territorial or mating related advertisement.
There was a lot of widespread fresh work done in certain areas,
enough to catch my eye.
Gas prices are an ongoing concern. There
has been upward pressure on prices the past few days. The local
numbers that I saw two days ago ranged from 3.27-3.37 a gallon.
The news this morning showed gas stations in the Fox Valley trending
up about a nickel to 3.34. My morning visit to the NYMEX showed
prices flat after a ten cent rise on Wednesday.
Well I am off to continue my busy little
day. I have a lot of ground to cover if we are running the river
tomorrow, and I have a hunch that we may. Have a god weekend
and thank you for visiting!
RJB
Over the winter I signed up for a new server
host that lets me do video on the Internet at a reasonable price.
Being the video guy at Kosir's, I have a lot of video production
gear, and want to use it on Internet related projects. Over the
winter I did clips of the snowcross races in Lakewood, and the
ice drag races at Chute Pond. As I mentioned previously, I have
a page set up of (so far) seven rafting videos, and there is
a link to it above on the far right of the whitewater rafting
and paddling section. Look for the big red "New" or
go to www.northerndestinations.com/raftingvideos
. Along the same line, the Peshtigo River Inn and Cramer's Brown Jug have video tours on their
new web sites. There
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